The 2025 Formula 1 season reaches its penultimate chapter this Sunday, November 30, when the paddock descends upon the Lusail International Circuit for the Qatar Airways Qatar Grand Prix. What was expected to be a comfortable coronation for Lando Norris has transformed into a nail-biting three-way battle for the Drivers’ Championship following last weekend’s dramatic events in Las Vegas.
The British driver arrives in Qatar with a 24-point advantage over both Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri, but the cushion that seemed insurmountable just seven days ago has been slashed in half after McLaren suffered a devastating double disqualification at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Both Norris and Piastri crossed the finish line in strong positions, only to be excluded from the results after FIA technical inspectors found their floor planks had worn beyond permitted tolerances.
Verstappen now finds himself just 24 points behind Norris in the title race, and level with Piastri following the shock double disqualification for McLaren in Vegas due to excessive plank wear. Before the exclusion, Verstappen was 42 points adrift, but the Dutchman is now within striking distance of the McLarens with just two races remaining.
Championship Mathematics
The numbers present a fascinating puzzle for all three contenders. Norris can win the title this weekend, provided he outscores Piastri and Verstappen by two points. Put simply, if the McLaren driver leaves Qatar with a 26-point lead or more, he will be crowned World Champion without needing to race in Abu Dhabi.
This weekend features the final Sprint format of the 2025 season, adding an extra layer of complexity to the championship battle. On Friday, November 28, the sole free practice session begins at 13:30 GMT, with Sprint Qualifying starting at 17:30 GMT. On Saturday, November 29, the Sprint is scheduled for 14:00 GMT, followed by Grand Prix qualifying at 18:00 GMT. The main event takes place on Sunday at 16:00 GMT, comprising 57 laps of the spectacular 5.419-kilometer circuit.
A total of 58 points remain available across the final two weekends, including eight from the Qatar Sprint. While Norris holds the advantage, the mathematics leave all three drivers mathematically in contention for the crown.
Predictions and Favorites
Despite the Las Vegas setback, oddsmakers still favor Norris to claim his maiden championship. Norris is currently listed at -310 with a strong likelihood of a championship win according to DraftKings. However, the dominance he once held in betting markets has eroded considerably following Verstappen’s impressive victory on the Strip.
Verstappen’s odds have shortened to +225 with just two races remaining. The four-time World Champion enters Qatar with momentum firmly on his side, having delivered an exceptional drive in Las Vegas that reminded everyone why he has dominated the sport in recent years.
For the race itself, Max Verstappen is listed at 7/5, while McLaren as a team sits at 11/10 to take the winning team honors. Historical precedent supports Verstappen’s credentials at this venue, as he won the 2024 Qatar Grand Prix, starting from second position after a one-place grid penalty but overtaking George Russell on the opening lap to lead unchallenged.
McLaren’s pace advantage throughout 2025 cannot be ignored, however. The papaya-liveried cars have been the class of the field for most of the season, helping the team secure the Constructors’ Championship with races to spare. McLaren did very well here last year with a car that was good but not as fast as this year’s model, making it no surprise that Lando Norris is the favorite for the win.
Circuit Characteristics
Designed primarily with motorcycle racing in mind, the 5.4-kilometer Lusail International Circuit is a fast and flowing track where medium and high-speed corners predominate. The layout features over one kilometer of main straight, providing plenty of overtaking opportunities into Turn One, a factor that could prove crucial in determining the final outcome.
The evening conditions in Qatar present unique challenges for teams and drivers. There is no rain on the forecast across the three days of action, with an air temperature of 25°C for the evening sessions, which drops to around 20°C during main qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday.
The Wildcard Factor
While Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri occupy center stage, other drivers could play spoiler roles. George Russell arrives fresh from victory in Las Vegas, where Mercedes demonstrated impressive pace. The Silver Arrows could be a threat on a circuit that rewards aerodynamic efficiency and straight-line speed.
Ferrari, meanwhile, faces pressure to bounce back after internal tensions surfaced in Vegas between Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz. The Italian team remains in contention for second place in the Constructors’ Championship and will be pushing hard for a strong result.
What’s at Stake
For Norris, this represents the opportunity of a lifetime. At 25 years old, he stands on the brink of becoming Britain’s first World Champion since Lewis Hamilton’s last title in 2020. A clean weekend with strong points finishes could see him crowned before the Abu Dhabi finale.
Verstappen, however, has proven time and again that he thrives under pressure. His charge from seemingly impossible deficits has defined this season’s second half, and the Red Bull driver will be determined to take this fight to the final round.
As the lights go out on Sunday evening in Lusail, motorsport fans worldwide will witness another chapter in what has become one of Formula 1’s most dramatic championship battles in recent memory.
