The 2026 World Cup field is down to four teams. France plays Spain on Tuesday, July 14, at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas. England faces Argentina on Wednesday, July 15, at Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Both kickoffs are set for 3 p.m. ET, according to FIFA’s official schedule.
World Cup semifinal predictions: Spain edges France, and England outlasts Argentina, with both winners advancing to the July 19 final in New Jersey.
| Match | Date | Kickoff (ET) | venue | Betting favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Spain | Tuesday, July 14 | 3:00 p.m. | Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas | France (-155) |
| England vs Argentina | Wednesday, July 15 | 3:00 p.m. | Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia | England (-135) |
France vs Spain Prediction: Mbappe’s Pace Against Spain’s Control
France has won all six matches this tournament and scored 16 goals along the way, according to ESPN. Kylian Mbappe leads that charge with 8 goals and 3 assists this tournament. That pushes his career World Cup total to 20 goals, second-most all time behind only Messi’s 21, according to ESPN. He picked up a minor ankle knock late in the 2-0 quarterfinal win over Morocco but said afterward he felt “completely fine.”
Didier Deschamps is expected to name a settled 4-3-3. Maignan starts in goal behind a back four of Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, and Digne, with Manu Kone and Adrien Rabiot screening in midfield. Dembele, Olise, and Doue support Mbappe up front, according to Sports Mole’s lineup projections.
The bigger concern sits with Aurelien Tchouameni, a major doubt with a thigh issue who has missed France’s last two matches. Kone deputizing changes how France presses and covers ground against a possession-heavy opponent.
Spain has been the tournament’s stingiest defense, conceding just one goal across six games. Its only blemish is a scoreless draw with Cape Verde in the group stage. Substitute Mikel Merino has scored the winner in back-to-back knockout matches, first against Portugal, then against Belgium. Teenager Lamine Yamal continues to pull defenders out of position from the right wing.
Spain coach Luis de la Fuente sounds like a man who believes in the matchup. “It’s fair to think we can beat France,” he said this week. “We’re the only team that has managed to beat them twice.” He was referring to Spain’s wins in the Euro 2024 semifinal and last year’s Nations League semifinal, the two most recent meetings between these sides.
History backs him up. Spain holds an 18-13-7 edge over France across 38 meetings and has won two of the last three competitive clashes. That run includes a 2-1 comeback win at Euro 2024. It also includes a wild 5-4 win last year in the Nations League semifinal, after France clawed back from 5-1 down.
Spain controls tempo better than any team left in this tournament, and that matters against a France side missing its first-choice defensive midfielder. Expect Spain to absorb France’s early pressure and let Yamal probe down the right. Merino should again be the difference off the bench.
Prediction: Spain 2, France 1.
England vs Argentina Prediction: Bellingham’s Redemption Bid Against Messi’s Last Dance
Jude Bellingham has been the story of England’s tournament. His 6 goals tie Gary Lineker and Harry Kane for the most by an Englishman in a single World Cup. He scored braces against both Mexico and Norway, including the extra-time winner that sent England past Norway 2-1 in the quarterfinal.
Thomas Tuchel is expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1. Pickford starts in goal behind a back four of Spence, Konsa, Guehi, and O’Reilly, with Anderson alongside Rice in a double pivot.
Saka, Bellingham, and Gordon support Kane up top, per Squawka’s lineup projections. Tuchel has not hidden his excitement for the occasion. “There is nowhere else in the whole wide world I would rather be than leading England into this World Cup semifinal,” he said. “I feel very alive in these minutes.”
England has needed to fight for nearly every result, coming from behind against both Congo DR and Norway in the knockout rounds. That resilience will be tested again against an Argentina side that has erased deficits of its own against Cape Verde and Egypt.
Bellingham’s fitness is the match’s biggest question mark. He was seen clutching his left shoulder during the Norway win, according to FOX Sports. He has played through pain from a prior surgery for weeks, and England’s medical staff are working to have him ready for Messi.
Argentina survived a scare against Switzerland, winning 3-1 in extra time after Alexis Mac Allister’s early header was canceled out by Dan Ndoye. Switzerland played the final 20 minutes and extra time a man down after Breel Embolo’s second yellow card for simulation. Julian Alvarez’s extra-time strike and a late Lautaro Martinez finish sealed it.
Lionel Scaloni is expected to keep his diamond midfield intact. Paredes sits behind De Paul, Mac Allister, and Enzo Fernandez, with Messi paired alongside Alvarez up front. Scaloni has downplayed the historical weight of facing England, calling it “a football game and that’s all.” “We will be playing against a very tough opponent,” he said. “They have an excellent coach.”
Lionel Messi, at 39, carries 8 goals into the semifinal. He now owns the most knockout-round goal involvements by any player in 60 years, 15 in total. That breaks a tie with Mbappe’s 14, per ESPN’s tournament statistics. He is a minor doubt with an eye injury from a collision with Switzerland’s Granit Xhaka but is expected to play. Messi has never faced England before.
He pointed to Argentina’s history with the opponent, including the 1986 quarterfinal decided by Maradona’s “Hand of God” and “Goal of the Century.” “Personally, it will be the first time I’m going to play against them,” Messi said. “Playing against England is special because they are a powerhouse.”
The tactical crux is Declan Rice against Argentina’s diamond. If Rice and Anderson can choke off the space between Argentina’s midfield and Messi, England’s front four has enough pace to punish Argentina’s high line. England hasn’t reached a World Cup final since 1966.
Argentina is chasing back-to-back titles after winning in 2022. If Bellingham is right, his movement between the lines should cause Argentina’s defense the same problems it has shown all tournament.
Prediction: England 2, Argentina 1.
Five things worth tracking as both matches unfold:
- Spain’s defense has conceded one goal all tournament, the single biggest factor working against France.
- Tchouameni’s absence forces France to lean on Kone in a role he has only just taken over.
- Bellingham’s shoulder is the injury story that could decide England’s semifinal.
- Messi keeps setting knockout-round records at 39 that no other player has matched in six decades.
- Declan Rice’s ability to track Argentina’s diamond midfield may matter more than any individual duel in Atlanta.
Both winners advance to the July 19 final in New Jersey, with a World Cup title on the line. If these picks hold, Spain and England meet for the trophy. Neither nation has ever won the World Cup twice in a row.
